Key Trip Wires
TRIP WIRE STATUS UPDATE — TWO of five have been CROSSED or RESOLVED:(1) ⚠️ CROSSED: FIRST IRGC KINETIC ACTION AT HORMUZ — Skylight tanker attacked + 2 additional tankers damaged. Traffic down 40-50%. 350+ tankers anchored. Brent at $80, heading to $92+.(2) ✅ RESOLVED: KHAMENEI STATUS
TRIP WIRE STATUS UPDATE — TWO of five have been CROSSED or RESOLVED:
(1) ⚠️ CROSSED: FIRST IRGC KINETIC ACTION AT HORMUZ — Skylight tanker attacked + 2 additional tankers damaged. Traffic down 40-50%. 350+ tankers anchored. Brent at $80, heading to $92+.
(2) ✅ RESOLVED: KHAMENEI STATUS — CONFIRMED DEAD. Iranian state media reversed earlier denial. 40-day mourning declared. Succession process active via Assembly of Experts. Ali Larijani emerging as leading candidate. Provisional Leadership Council (Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Ejei, Arafi) holds caretaker authority.
(3) RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA UAV SUPPLY — Not triggered. Russia Su-35 contract and Shahed production line confirmed. Russia requested IAEA meeting but offers no military support. NK substitution not announced.
(4) SAUDI ARABIA MILITARY ACTION — Not triggered. Saudi reserved right but has not acted. Tadawul crashed 4.8%. OPEC+ output increase announced.
(5) IAEA NUCLEAR ACCESS — Not triggered but DETERIORATING. Only 1 of 3 targeted nuclear sites confirmed destroyed. Iran hardening Pickaxe Mountain to 80-100m. IAEA access denied 9+ months. Weaponization probability ~50%. EU designated IRGC as terrorist org. Russia IAEA meeting March 2.
ISRAELI CASUALTIES: 10 killed (9 Beit Shemesh, 1 Tel Aviv), ~150 wounded. Trump declared operation ‘ahead of schedule’; bombing continues all week.