Geopolitical

UNSC session: no resolution. Guterres condemned both sides as violating international law and UN Charter. E3 called for negotiations; France offered military aid. EU special security college Monday. EU designated IRGC as terrorist organization Feb 19 with asset freezes. NATO pivoted surveillance to Iran; Aegis Ashore and Rota destroyers operational. Russia-China-Iran: joint IAEA letter, joint naval exercises, arms pipeline. Russia requested extraordinary IAEA meeting March 2 but analysts assess neither Russia nor China can offer military support.

PROXY LANDSCAPE (March 1): Kataib Hezbollah vowed to ‘soon begin attacking US bases.’ Islamic Resistance of Iraq claimed 16 drone operations. HOWEVER: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem vowed to ‘confront aggression’ and ‘not leave the field of resistance’ but avoided operational specifics — restraint continues despite Khamenei’s confirmed death crossing stated red line. Hamas condemned strikes with solidarity statement but no operational commitment. Iraqi air defenses intercepted 9 drones at Dhi Qar and Basra.

Iraq: PM al-Sudani declared territory off-limits as launch pad. Airspace closed after Erbil struck twice.

FIRST ISRAELI CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: 9 killed, 28 wounded in Beit Shemesh missile strike. Combined with 3 US KIA, the human cost is now directly felt by both attacking nations’ populations — increasing domestic political pressure.

Anti-war protests erupted across DC, LA, NYC, SF. Jane Fonda spoke in LA. Counter-protests supported regime change. Public opinion 51-49. Congressional War Powers votes expected early March.

Russia: Condemned strikes, warned of ‘humanitarian, economic and radiological catastrophe,’ requested IAEA meeting. Shahed production line in Russia (10,000/yr) and Su-35 contract give Moscow material exposure to conflict outcome. Spain’s PM Sánchez rejected ‘unilateral military action’ as ‘an escalation contributing to a more uncertain and hostile international order.’