NYT Analysis: Minab School Struck During US Attack on Adjacent Naval Base

The New York Times published a forensic analysis confirming that the February 28 strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab — the war’s deadliest single civilian incident, killing at least 168 people including many children — was part of a US military strike targeting an adjacent naval base in southern Iran. BBC satellite imagery corroborated the analysis, showing extensive damage to both the school and the neighboring IRGC compound.

This finding reframes the incident in three critical ways:

Attribution: The strike was carried out by US forces, not Israel. This shifts political and legal accountability to Washington.

Intent vs. outcome: The military target (naval base) was legitimate under the laws of armed conflict. The civilian casualties resulted from proximity, not direct targeting. However, the proportionality principle of international humanitarian law requires that anticipated civilian harm not be “excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.”

Pattern: Iranian authorities reported at least 168 deaths at the school. The updated death toll (from earlier reports of 148 and 165) and the confirmation of US attribution make this the defining civilian harm incident of Operation Epic Fury. The International Committee of the Red Cross has stated that even when schools are used for military purposes, armed parties must avoid or minimize civilian harm.

A separate incident on March 5 saw two additional schools in Parand, near Tehran, struck by missiles, compounding the civilian harm narrative.