Lavrov warns US-Israel strikes will incentivize Iran and Arab states to pursue nuclear weapons — proliferation cascade risk

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated on March 4 that the US-Israeli military attacks could produce the opposite of their intended effect. Lavrov warned that ‘forces will emerge in Iran in favor of acquiring nuclear weapons’ and that the US precedent of not attacking nuclear-armed states creates perverse incentives for proliferation. He cautioned that Arab nations might now pursue nuclear weapons and that ‘the nuclear proliferation problem will spiral out of control.’ The statement aligns with France’s same-day nuclear expansion announcement and nonproliferation expert assessments that military strikes without diplomatic resolution accelerate rather than prevent proliferation.