IDF assesses Iran retains ~2,500 ballistic missiles despite 300 launchers destroyed — Iran was accelerating production pre-war; treadmill effect means attrition campaign may be losing race against Iranian production

NYT reported Israeli official assessed Iran ‘significantly accelerated’ missile production in months before Operation Epic Fury. IDF current assessment: Iran holds approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles despite ongoing campaign (Times of Israel). 400 launchers existed with ~300 destroyed — but Iran actively building replacements. The 2025 12-Day War degraded roughly half Iran’s stockpile; Iran spent intervening period rebuilding. Trump told Politico ‘Iran is running out of launchers’ — but underlying IDF assessment shows 2,500 missiles still in inventory. Guardian analysis: ‘Middle East war could be decided by who runs out of missiles or interceptors first.’ With US interceptor depletion rates (Qatar 4 days, UAE 7 days) and Iranian production rates both accelerating, math favors whichever side has simpler, cheaper munitions — Iran’s position. China watching US drain stockpiles provides strategic signal for Taiwan scenario modeling.