Economic

Oil shock accelerating: Brent crude surged 10% to ~$80/barrel in OTC trading March 1, up from $72.87 pre-crisis. Rystad Energy forecasts $92 at Monday market open. WTI at $75.33. US gas at $2.984/gallon (AAA), projected to rise 10-30 cents within 2-4 weeks. At $80 Brent, US inflation rises ~0.5pp; at $100, ~1pp.

Markets: Dow -1.2%, S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.8% on March 1. Saudi Tadawul crashed 4.8% at open, recovered to -2.2%. Kuwait halted trading. Bitcoin at ~$63K after $515M crypto liquidation. Gold above $5,000. Wall Street adopting ‘haven-first’ strategy — rotating to Treasuries, gold, USD ahead of Monday open.

IRANIAN RIAL COLLAPSE: Rial hit record 1,749,500/USD — 30% depreciation from January 2026. Capital flight accelerating. Import costs for food, medicine, essential goods surging. Combined with internet blackout preventing normal banking, civilian economic conditions deteriorating rapidly.

OPEC+ announced slight output increase — signal of coordination but insufficient to offset 40-50% Hormuz traffic reduction. OPEC+ increase quantified at 220,000 bbl/day — insufficient to offset Hormuz disruption. 350+ tankers anchored. 3 tankers damaged. EU designated IRGC as terrorist organization — asset freezes now cutting IRGC financial operations through European banking.

Supply chain compound: dual chokepoint (Hormuz + Red Sea) forces all cargo to Cape of Good Hope (+10-14 days). Not just energy — total trade disruption affecting consumer goods, components, food, and pharmaceuticals globally. Japan: 80% energy via Hormuz, recession probability >70% if disruption persists.