research high credibility
Dark Factories

Harvard

https://www.harvard.edu

Key findings:

  • 9–10% decline in junior developer employment within six quarters
  • Disproportionate impact on entry-level roles — the jobs where AI is most substitutable

Corroborating data from the same period:

  • UK graduate tech roles: down 46% in 2024, further 53% projected by 2026
  • US junior developer job postings: down 67%
  • Gartner: 80% of software engineers will need AI upskilling by 2027

The hollowing-out of the junior pipeline has significant implications for how the next generation of senior engineers develops judgment and intuition — if there are no junior roles to grow through.